Understanding the score
What each number in the assessment tells you — and when to trust it.
The composite score
Every assessment returns a single composite score between 300 and 850, mapped to a letter grade (A+ to F) and the implied probability of default over the next 12 months (PD).
| Grade | What it means | 12-month PD |
|---|---|---|
| A+ | Exceptional — negligible default risk | < 0.25% |
| A / A- | Strong — investment grade equivalent | 0.25% – 1% |
| B+ / B | Healthy — typical SME in good standing | 1% – 3% |
| B- | Acceptable — watch for deterioration | 3% – 5% |
| C+ / C | Elevated — conditional approval advised | 5% – 10% |
| C- | Weak — refer to committee / secure additional collateral | 10% – 15% |
| D+ / D | Poor — decline or highly secured only | 15% – 25% |
| E / F | Distressed — decline | > 25% |
How the composite is built
AgentCredit uses an ensemble of three independent models. The composite is a weighted average of their PD estimates; weights are learned from training data and adjust at scoring time based on what data you supplied.
- Statistical scorecard — weight-of-evidence binned logistic regression, explainable at feature level
- XGBoost ML model — gradient-boosted trees with SHAP explanations; a P&L-specialist head auto-routes when income-statement data is present
- Altman Z-score — the 1968 Altman formula with 2007 industry calibration and a startup adjustment for firms < 3 years old
On top of that, three adjustments modulate the final PD: country risk (sovereign rating + OECD tier), industry risk (UK SIC section A–U), and data completeness (see below).
For the full technical breakdown — training data, algorithms, known limitations, performance numbers — see the model card.
Data completeness grading
UK micro-entities file balance-sheet-only accounts (no P&L) ~99% of the time. AgentCredit grades every assessment as full, partial, or limited, and applies a conservative PD uplift when data is incomplete:
- Full — complete balance sheet + P&L + cashflow. No adjustment.
- Partial — P&L missing or sparse. A modest conservative uplift is applied to PD and confidence intervals widen.
- Limited — balance sheet only. A larger conservative uplift is applied; treat as directional, not definitive.
The UI flags this prominently. Interpret “Limited data” assessments as guidance, not ground truth.
Peer comparison
Every assessment benchmarks key liquidity, leverage, and profitability ratios against real UK peers. Buckets are keyed by UK SIC 2007 at two levels:
- Division (2-digit, ~88 buckets) — preferred when enough peers are available
- Section (letter A–U, 21 buckets) — coarser fallback
We return percentiles (P10, P25, P50, P75, P90) so you can see where the counterparty sits in the distribution. A company at the 25th percentile current ratio within its SIC division is below average but not necessarily distressed — always read the composite and the narrative together.
When to override the model
AgentCredit is a decision-support tool, not an automated approver. Consider overriding the composite when you have information the model doesn't:
- Recent management changes, litigation, or press that the model can't see
- Very recent filings or interim accounts more current than our training snapshot
- Bank statement or Open Banking data (not yet wired in)
- Your own default history with this counterparty
Admins on your account can amend the recorded grade with a mandatory written reason — the amendment is audited, visible to everyone on your team, and preserved in the record.